ARK's Brett Winton mocks AI bubble worries with a chart estimating frontier AI revenue run rates up about 400% in a year
no I get it we should be freaking out a mere [checks notes] 400% year over year growth at the frontier
Context
The chart puts a number on how fast frontier AI revenue is growing, which sits at the center of the debate over whether spending on data centers can pay off.
This is a first hand opinion from Brett Winton, chief futurist at ARK Invest, which invests in AI companies. The figures in the chart are ARK's own estimates built from public disclosures and other sources, not company reported numbers.
Deep dive
On October 15, Brett Winton posted a sarcastic reply to people worried about AI, writing that we should be freaking out over a mere 400% year over year growth at the frontier.
The attached ARK Invest chart, titled Frontier AI Annual Revenue Run Rates, covers commercial revenue history and estimates through September 30, 2026. It shows OpenAI, using what ARK calls a gross estimate, and Anthropic each at about $70 billion, Cursor and xAI together at $6.0 billion and Gemini Enterprise at $4.1 billion. A dashed line combining all four reaches $150 billion, labeled up 408% year over year.
The chart's footnotes say the sources are ARK, public disclosures, Sacra, Cursor and ARK estimates. They say OpenAI's figure uses a 1.40 times gross adjustment that ARK assumes, that Gemini covers only enterprise seat revenue, that sums may include sales between the companies, and that infrastructure as a service revenue is excluded.
Those assumptions matter. Anthropic told prospective investors this week that its third quarter revenue was $16.8 billion, while Bain estimated on October 13 that the industry needs about $6 trillion a year by 2031 to justify current data center spending.
What to expect next
Watch whether reported results from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google in the coming quarters line up with ARK's estimates, especially the adjusted OpenAI figure.
Also watch how the run rate debate shifts as AI and chip stocks swing, and whether other analysts publish competing estimates of frontier revenue. A slowdown in growth from these levels would change the argument quickly, while continued growth would strengthen the case for heavy spending on data centers.