A Korean analyst forecasts SK hynix third quarter operating profit of KRW 80.1 trillion, well above consensus
The Korean analyst with the best track record of forecasting SK hynix’s earnings released a report today predicting a substantial beat versus consensus. The analyst forecasts operating profit of KRW 80.1 trillion, above the current consensus of KRW 74 trillion—with recent reports revising estimates down to as low as KRW 70 trillion.
Context
SK hynix is a bellwether for AI memory demand, so a large earnings beat would signal that spending on high bandwidth memory for AI chips is still accelerating.
The forecast comes from analyst Kim Sun woo at Meritz Securities, according to Korean press reports. The post's claim that he has the best track record for forecasting SK hynix earnings is the poster's own description and is not verified here. SK hynix has not yet reported third quarter results.
Deep dive
On October 12, jukan05 posted that the Korean analyst with the best track record of forecasting SK hynix earnings released a report predicting a substantial beat versus consensus, with operating profit of KRW 80.1 trillion against a consensus of KRW 74 trillion.
Chosun Biz reported that Meritz Securities analyst Kim Sun woo expects third quarter operating profit of 80.1 trillion won, up 32% from the previous quarter. Meritz kept a Buy rating and raised its target price to 3.2 million won, against a previous close of 1.681 million won. Chosun Biz said recent estimates had fallen to 70 trillion won, partly because of the strong won.
Kim expects DRAM shipments up 13% with prices up 22%, and NAND shipments up 4% with prices up 15%. He forecast 63 trillion won of operating profit from DRAM and 17 trillion won from NAND, an operating margin of about 80%. He said HBM4 supply is starting at full scale, and that long term contract talks with key mobile customers are shifting toward terms favorable to suppliers.
Meritz raised its full year forecasts to 264 trillion won for this year and 454 trillion won for next year, and Kim said a memory shortage in 2027 is clear.
What to expect next
Watch SK hynix's actual third quarter results later this month against the 80.1 trillion won forecast and the 70 to 74 trillion won range of other estimates.
Also watch HBM4 shipment volumes, the outcome of long term supply talks with phone makers, and whether a strong won keeps weighing on reported profit, since all three drive how much of the AI memory boom shows up in earnings.