Watcher.Guru claims the IMF predicts AI will take over 40% of all jobs, but the IMF's finding is that about 40% of jobs are exposed to AI
JUST IN: IMF predicts AI will take over 40% of all jobs.
Context
A viral post turned a careful estimate about exposure into a prediction of mass job loss, and the difference matters for how people read the IMF's warnings this week.
In January 2024, IMF staff analysis found that almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI, meaning AI could affect tasks in those jobs. The IMF said roughly half of exposed jobs in advanced economies may benefit from AI, while the other half could see lower demand, lower wages or reduced hiring. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings opened in Bangkok this week.
Deep dive
Early on October 12, Watcher.Guru posted: JUST IN: IMF predicts AI will take over 40% of all jobs. The post cited no report, and the IMF has not said that.
The 40 percent figure comes from IMF staff research published in January 2024, which found that almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI. In advanced economies about 60 percent of jobs are exposed, and the IMF said roughly half of those may benefit through higher productivity, while for the other half AI could take over key tasks, lowering labor demand, wages and hiring. Only in the most extreme cases, it said, might some jobs disappear. Exposure was put at 40 percent in emerging markets and 26 percent in low income countries.
The post came as IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva repeated that research at the annual meetings in Bangkok. According to Reuters, she said on October 11 that some 40 percent of jobs will be either augmented, downgraded or eliminated by AI, and as high as 60 percent in advanced economies.
CNBC reported that on October 12 she described AI as hitting labor markets like a slow moving tsunami, with young graduates entering routine jobs most exposed.
What to expect next
Watch the IMF's updated World Economic Outlook, which Reuters said is due on Tuesday, for any new estimates of AI's effect on jobs and growth.
Also watch whether Watcher.Guru corrects or clarifies its post, and whether finance ministers at the Bangkok meetings back the retraining and safety net measures Georgieva and World Bank officials have urged for workers hit by AI.