a16z chart: token prices keep falling while H100 GPU rental prices hold up
Token prices keep falling and GPU rental prices keep rising Intelligence gets cheaper, usage goes up, and a model ends up in every piece of software
Context
a16z reads the split as a Jevons effect, where cheaper intelligence drives so much more usage that demand for the underlying compute stays strong.
The Jevons paradox is the idea that when a resource gets cheaper to use, total use can rise enough to increase demand for it. The chart comes from a16z's growth team and uses data from Ornn, Silicon Data and Bloomberg, as compiled by Citadel Securities, through August 2026. a16z posted it as a quote of its own clip of TypeSafe AI founder Diogo Almeida, who named the Jev model after the economist William Stanley Jevons.
Deep dive
In the post, a16z says token prices keep falling and GPU rental prices keep rising, and argues that as intelligence gets cheaper, usage goes up and a model ends up in every piece of software.
The attached chart, titled Jevons: Compute Prices Rise As Token Prices Fall, plots an H100 GPU rental price from Ornn against Silicon Data's Token Price Expenditure Index from December 2025 to August 2026. Both lines climb into May 2026, peaking above $3.30 an hour for H100 rentals. In June the chart marks a period where token and compute prices fell together. From July, it shows token prices dropping sharply while H100 rental prices recover and hold around $2.70 an hour.
The chart's own source note says the data is compiled by Citadel Securities and runs through August 2026, so it does not show September or October. Over the full period shown, H100 rental prices are higher than where they started in December 2025, while the token index ends below its starting level.
a16z made the point while promoting TypeSafe AI, the Jev maker it just led a funding round in. In a clip a16z quoted, founder Diogo Almeida said Jev is named for Jevons because he expects people to create new kinds of work once more tasks become automatable.
What to expect next
Watch whether the split continues in later data, since the chart stops in August 2026 and one quarter is a short window.
Also watch GPU rental and cloud pricing as new chip supply arrives. If rental prices hold while token prices keep falling, it supports the case that demand for compute is still growing faster than supply. A drop in rental prices would weaken a16z's reading.