a16z Charts of the Week: global call center jobs flipped from about 4% yearly growth to a 4% yearly decline
Call center jobs grew ~4% annually for 15 years Now they’re shrinking 4% annually Charts of the Week:
Context
Call centers were long expected to be among the first jobs AI replaces, and a16z argues Revelio Labs data now shows that shift happening worldwide, even as broader evidence of AI job losses stays weak.
a16z publishes a weekly Charts of the Week newsletter, and this edition was written by Moses Sternstein on October 9. The call center chart uses data from Revelio Labs, a workforce data company. The same edition also covered prediction markets, the Rule of 40 and earnings revisions.
Deep dive
In the newsletter, a16z writes that while broader evidence of an AI jobs apocalypse remains weak to nonexistent, data from Revelio shows global call center employment has gone sharply negative after more than a decade of fairly consistent growth. The chart shows year over year growth near 4% for most of 2010 to 2022, falling toward zero by 2024 and reaching roughly minus 4% in 2026.
a16z notes that growth began slowing when interest rates rose, slightly before GPT was released, but says the downtrend has steepened since and accelerated recently. It says higher income countries went negative in 2022, while lower middle income countries stayed positive for about two more years, and that by the fourth quarter of 2025 call center employment growth had turned negative everywhere, even in the poorest countries.
The newsletter also says that outside China, call center employment has lagged broader white collar service work in every major non US market. a16z acknowledges there could be other reasons besides AI, but concludes it seems reasonable to see AI as the driver. It adds that US unemployment has stayed relatively stable, suggesting former call center workers have found other jobs.
What to expect next
Watch for Revelio's own detailed release and for official labor statistics that can confirm or challenge the trend, since the chart rests on one data provider.
Also watch whether similar declines show up in other jobs often described as exposed to AI, such as customer support and data entry. a16z expects more change to come, and the next few quarters will show whether call centers are an early case or an exception.