Kobeissi Letter: OpenAI and Anthropic Run Rate of $105B Is Nearly 10 Times Six Chinese AI Firms Combined
US AI is generating far more revenue than Chinese AI: As of the end of September, OpenAI and Anthropic had a combined estimated annualized revenue run rate of $105 billion. This is nearly 10 times the $11 billion generated by 6 Chinese AI companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Z Dot ai, Moonshot AI, and MiniMax. ByteDance accounted for 36% of this figure at $4 billion. In Q3 alone, Anthropic's sales grew +47% QoQ, to a record $17 billion. At the same time, OpenAI revenue surged +50% to a record $10 billion. By comparison, DeepSeek's annualized revenue run rate doubled in September, but stands at just $1 billion. US tech firms remain in the lead of the AI race.
Context
The comparison puts a number on the commercial gap between US and Chinese AI labs, even as Chinese open models compete on capability.
Revenue comparisons between US and Chinese AI companies are rare because most are private. The Kobeissi Letter's chart credits Epoch AI and Nikkei Asia as sources. Anthropic's Q3 revenue figure of $17.0B also appears on its IPO site.
Deep dive
The Kobeissi Letter posted on November 12 that US AI is generating far more revenue than Chinese AI. According to the post, OpenAI and Anthropic had a combined estimated annualized revenue run rate of $105 billion as of the end of September, nearly 10 times the $11 billion generated by six Chinese AI companies: Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Moonshot AI and MiniMax.
The post says ByteDance accounted for 36% of the Chinese figure at $4 billion. It says Anthropic's sales grew 47% quarter over quarter in Q3 to a record $17 billion, and that OpenAI revenue rose 50% to a record $10 billion. It adds that DeepSeek's annualized run rate doubled in September but stands at about $1 billion.
The attached chart is labeled as an estimate and lists Epoch AI and Nikkei Asia as sources. The run rate figures are estimates, not reported results, and the post does not explain how revenue was attributed for large companies like Alibaba and ByteDance, whose AI sales are part of wider businesses.
What to expect next
Anthropic's IPO filings and any OpenAI disclosures will test these estimates against audited numbers. Watch whether Chinese labs, several of which release open weights models, turn usage into revenue faster in coming quarters. Export controls on chips, now in focus after the Huang resignation and the DePue claims, could also shape how fast Chinese firms can grow. Independent estimates from Epoch AI may also be updated as new filings appear.