Unverified Note Says Anthropic Told Analysts Its SpaceX Compute Deal Ends Mid Next Year
Interesting remarks Anthropic made in a meeting with the sell side: - Anthropic has the stability and the better talent that open source lacks. - The AI market is winner take all. As long as we execute properly, we will take all of it. - The contract with SpaceX will not be extended beyond the middle of next year. - Developing Opus 5.5 cost more than $10 billion.
Context
If accurate, it would show Anthropic planning to move off SpaceX compute and spending over $10 billion on one model.
Anthropic is preparing for its IPO, and sell side analysts are the bank researchers who write about companies for investors. Jukan, an account that posts chip and AI industry notes, shared what it described as remarks Anthropic made in a meeting with the sell side. Anthropic has not publicly confirmed the remarks, so treat them as unverified.
Deep dive
Jukan posted a list of what it called interesting remarks Anthropic made in a meeting with sell side analysts. The post is secondhand, gives no source document, and has not been confirmed by Anthropic.
According to the post, Anthropic said it has stability and better talent than open source rivals, and that the AI market is winner take all, adding that as long as it executes properly it will take all of it. The post also says Anthropic told analysts its contract with SpaceX will not be extended beyond the middle of next year, and that developing Opus 5.5 cost more than $10 billion.
The note spread widely, passing 790,000 views. Aaron Burnett pushed back, arguing that critics were reading a secondhand meeting note without context, and that the SpaceX comment was likely an answer to an analyst question about being stuck with above market compute rates if demand slowed.
Elon Musk replied to Burnett that SpaceX would be happy to take the compute back, adding that he thinks the opposite is going to happen.
What to expect next
Anthropic's IPO filings and roadshow materials are the place to check these claims, especially any disclosure of compute contracts and model development costs. If the SpaceX deal does end in mid 2027, watch where Anthropic moves that capacity. Musk's reply suggests he expects Anthropic to want more SpaceX compute, not less, so any extension or new deal would be a clear signal either way.