The Kobeissi Letter Says Markets See Only a 28% Chance Anthropic Will Be 2026's Largest IPO, Down From 62%
BREAKING: Anthropic is no longer expected to surpass SpaceX, $SPCX, as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026. Markets now see just a 28% chance of Anthropic being the largest IPO of the year, down from a high of 62%. This comes amid reports that Anthropic could receive a "high junk" credit rating, while OpenAI has cut its fundraising valuation target by $150 billion. Anthropic is expected to IPO this month.
Context
Shifting market expectations around Anthropic's listing signal how investors are pricing the cost and risk of frontier AI labs.
Anthropic, the maker of Claude, is reported to be preparing an initial public offering. SpaceX trades under the ticker $SPCX in the post. The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) is a markets newsletter account that relays headlines and does not name its sources here.
Deep dive
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted on Nov 3 that Anthropic is no longer expected to surpass SpaceX as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026. According to the post, markets now see just a 28% chance of Anthropic being the largest IPO of the year, down from a high of 62%.
The post does not name the market behind those odds. It links the drop to reports that Anthropic could receive a "high junk" credit rating, and to reports that OpenAI has cut its fundraising valuation target by $150 billion. It also says Anthropic is expected to IPO this month.
All of these claims are secondhand. The Kobeissi Letter does not cite the outlets behind the credit rating and valuation reports, and neither Anthropic nor OpenAI is quoted in the post. Readers should treat the details as unconfirmed until they are reported with named sources or confirmed by the companies.
The post passed 130,000 views. It matters because an Anthropic listing would be the first public market test of a frontier AI lab's value, and the odds on prediction markets have become a common way for traders to signal sentiment ahead of big deals.
What to expect next
Watch for an official IPO filing or pricing from Anthropic, confirmation of any credit rating, and named reports on OpenAI's fundraising target. The final listing size will settle the question of the year's largest IPO. Movement in prediction market odds and in the share prices of AI linked companies will show how investors read the news. A delay to the listing would also be a strong signal.