Kobeissi Letter Says Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle Now Disclose a Record $3.3 Trillion in Future Spending Commitments, Led by Google at $1.06 Trillion
BREAKING: Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, Microsoft, $MSFT, Amazon, $AMZN, and Oracle, $ORCL, have now disclosed a record $3.3 trillion in future spending commitments. These are off-balance-sheet commitments covering data-center spending, future equipment purchases, leases, and
Context
Trillions in long term commitments for data centers and equipment lock the biggest tech companies into the AI buildout for years, whatever happens to demand.
Off balance sheet commitments are future obligations, such as leases that have not started yet and equipment orders, that companies disclose in their filings but do not yet record as debt. The chart in the post cites Bloomberg and company filings. Earlier in this deck, Anthropic's IPO filing showed about $895.4B in its own compute commitments.
Deep dive
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted on the evening of Nov 2 ET that Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle have now disclosed a record $3.3 trillion in future spending commitments. The post describes these as off balance sheet commitments covering data center spending, future equipment purchases, leases and other obligations.
According to the post, Alphabet accounts for the largest amount at $1.06 trillion, with its disclosed commitments up nearly 700% over the last year. Meta follows at $866 billion, with nearly half tied to data center leases that have not yet started and payment periods running up to 30 years. Microsoft has $593 billion, Amazon $453 billion and Oracle $322 billion. The chart attached to the post cites Bloomberg and company filings as its source.
The figures are relayed by The Kobeissi Letter, a markets commentary account, and were not checked here against each company's filing. The post does not separate AI related commitments from other obligations, so not all of the $3.3 trillion is necessarily tied to AI.
The post frames the total as an unprecedented pipeline of future financial obligations created by the AI infrastructure buildout. It lands on the same day that Anthropic's amended IPO filing showed about $895.4 billion in its own purchase and lease commitments, and that Oracle filed to raise $20 billion, both covered in this deck. Together they show how much of the AI race is now being paid for with long dated promises to spend rather than cash already spent.
What to expect next
Watch whether investors start treating these commitments more like debt when they value the companies, and whether ratings agencies comment. Next quarter's filings will show if the totals keep climbing at this pace, especially Alphabet's. Any slowdown in AI demand would put pressure on the long leases first. Expect more questions on earnings calls about how flexible these contracts are, and whether any of them can be cancelled if demand cools.