The Kobeissi Letter Says US Investment in Information Processing Equipment and Software Hit a Record $1.77 Trillion in Q3 2026
AI spending is rapidly accelerating in the US. US private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software grew at an annualized rate of +7.3% in Q3 2026, to a record $1.77 trillion. This marks the largest quarterly increase since Q4 1983. By comparison, at the height of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, this metric grew +6.2%. Since Q4 2022, private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software has surged +61%, or +$671 billion. As a % of GDP, this metric is up to a record 5.4%, significantly surpassing the previous high of 4.5% recorded in Q4 2000. The scale of US AI investment is unlike anything seen before.
Context
Spending on computers and software is now a visible driver of US economic growth, so the AI buildout shows up in national data, not just company earnings.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate of third quarter 2026 GDP on Oct 29. It reported real GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate, with the rise in equipment investment led by information processing equipment, mainly computers and peripherals. The BEA does not publish a separate category for AI spending, so figures like these are a proxy for the AI buildout.
Deep dive
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) wrote on Nov 1 that AI spending is rapidly accelerating in the US. It says private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software grew 7.3% in Q3 2026 to a record $1.77 trillion, the largest quarterly increase since Q4 1983, compared with 6.2% at the height of the 2000 dot com bubble. It adds that the measure is up 61%, or $671 billion, since Q4 2022, and has reached a record 5.4% of GDP versus a previous high of 4.5% in Q4 2000. The post calls this annualized growth, while its own chart labels the 7.3% as quarter over quarter growth. These calculations are the account's own and were not checked line by line here.
The underlying data comes from the BEA advance estimate released Oct 29. BEA reported real GDP growth of 3.4% at an annual rate and said the gain in equipment was led by information processing equipment, mainly computers and peripherals. Coverage of the release reports that real investment in information processing equipment rose at a 37.4% annual rate and software at 9.6%. PNC economists estimate that information processing equipment, software and research together added 1.30 percentage points to growth, nearly double the second quarter.
There are caveats. BEA based the equipment figure mostly on import data, and much of the hardware is made abroad, so imports offset part of the boost to US output. The advance estimate is also the first of three and can be revised.
What to expect next
BEA publishes its second estimate of Q3 GDP on Nov 25, which will show whether the record holds after revisions. Watch the fourth quarter data for signs that AI equipment spending is still accelerating or starting to level off, and whether more of the hardware is produced in the US. Investors will also compare these totals with the capital spending plans that large tech companies give in their earnings calls.