Polymarket bettors give OpenAI an 85% chance of reaching a $1.25 trillion valuation by year end

Context

These are prediction market betting odds posted by Polymarket Money, Polymarket's finance news account, which has an interest in promoting its markets. The headline wording, now projected to reach, describes traders' bets, not a projection by OpenAI or analysts.

Deep dive

On October 20, Polymarket Money posted that OpenAI is now projected to reach a $1.25 trillion valuation by the end of the year, at an 85% chance.

The chart shows a Polymarket market asking whether OpenAI's valuation will hit $1.25 trillion by December 31. The odds stood at 85%, up 14 points, after jumping from about 65% during the past week, with about $1.3 million traded.

The odds are what traders are willing to pay, not a valuation. The jump follows a Reuters report, covered in the October 19 deck, that OpenAI is racing to raise about $30 billion at a valuation over $1.4 trillion before Anthropic's expected IPO. If that round closes at those terms, the market would resolve yes, which may explain the move.

The chart's fine print says trading is risky, the market is not available to US users, and it is for informational use only. With about $1.3 million in volume, the market is small compared with the sums involved, and a few large bets can move the odds.

OpenAI has not confirmed the terms of any new round.

What to expect next

Watch for OpenAI to confirm or deny the reported fundraising and its valuation, which would settle the market. Anthropic's IPO plans, including the draft filing reported the same day, could affect how investors price OpenAI. Treat further moves in these odds as a sign of trader sentiment rather than new information unless backed by reporting. A market resolving yes would still depend on how Polymarket defines the valuation in its rules.