An account says Morgan Stanley cut its 2026 to 2030 forecast for AMD GPU demand by 43% while keeping Nvidia's unchanged
Morgan Stanley has revised AMD's GPU demand forecast for 2026-2030 from 14.1 million units to 8.0 million units, or -43.3%, while keeping Nvidia's the same. $AMD $NVDA
Context
A large cut to AMD's GPU outlook would suggest Nvidia keeps its hold on AI chips, but the report behind the claim has not been published.
This is a secondhand claim from P Equity Research, which did not link the Morgan Stanley note. The note could not be found, and a Chinese language report on it gives different figures, so the details are unconfirmed.
Deep dive
On October 18, P Equity Research posted that Morgan Stanley has revised AMD's GPU demand forecast for 2026 to 2030 from 14.1 million units to 8.0 million units, a cut of 43.3%, while keeping Nvidia's the same. Its chart is dated October 14 and shows the cut as 5.9 million units.
The post did not link or quote the Morgan Stanley report, and no copy of it could be found. A post on the Chinese news site Sina dated October 15 attributed different figures to a Morgan Stanley report. It said the bank cut its forecast for AMD GPUs in 2026 by 75%, from 2.4 million to 0.6 million, cut 2027 from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, and put 2030 at 2.1 million against 3.2 million before. It said Nvidia's forecasts were unchanged, at 8.1 million units in 2026, 7.5 million in 2027 and 7.2 million over the long term.
That post framed the note as about risks to suppliers of chip packaging substrates from weaker server deployments, not as a call on AMD's stock. The two accounts do not clearly match, and neither can be checked against the original.
Other Morgan Stanley research reported this month was positive on demand for AMD's Venice server CPUs.
What to expect next
Watch for the Morgan Stanley note itself or coverage by major financial outlets, which would confirm the figures and explain the reasons for the cut.
Also watch AMD's next earnings report and any updates on its data center GPU orders, which will show whether demand matches the lower forecast. Claims about analyst notes often spread on X before the details are clear.