IDC data shows global smartphone shipments fell a record 22% in the third quarter as AI driven memory costs soared
Global smartphone purchases have collapsed. Worldwide smartphone shipments dropped -22.0% YoY in Q3 2026, to 255.3 million units, their largest quarterly decline on record. Samsung's shipments fell -5.8% YoY, to 57.8 million units, while Apple's declined -4.0% to 57.3 million units. At the same time, Xiaomi shipments fell -29.2% YoY to 30.7 million units, Oppo dropped -34.5%, to 25.6 million units, while Vivo fell -31.5%, to 19.1 million units. This comes as memory costs have surged +350% since last year, driven by AI-related demand, putting further pressure on smartphone manufacturers. As a result, soaring component costs are forcing vendors to raise prices and reduce budget-focused offerings, with consumers increasingly keeping their existing devices for longer. Global smartphone sales are contracting amid surging prices.
Context
AI demand for memory is now raising prices and cutting sales of consumer devices, spreading the cost of the AI buildout to ordinary buyers.
This is secondhand: The Kobeissi Letter is relaying IDC's preliminary figures, which IDC released on October 14, so the data is four days old. Its numbers match IDC's release, and Counterpoint and Omdia separately estimated a decline of about 20%.
Deep dive
On October 18, The Kobeissi Letter posted that global smartphone purchases have collapsed, with shipments down 22.0% year over year in the third quarter of 2026 to 255.3 million units, their largest quarterly decline on record.
The figures match IDC's preliminary data released on October 14. IDC said shipments fell from 327.3 million a year earlier, the highest year over year decline of any quarter to date. Samsung shipped 57.8 million units, down 5.8%, and Apple 57.3 million, down 4.0%, while Xiaomi fell 29.2% to 30.7 million, OPPO 34.5% to 25.6 million and vivo 31.5% to 19.1 million. Other brands fell 32.5%.
IDC's Nabila Popal said memory costs have surged about 350% since last year and are still rising, putting pressure on vendor margins, and that the market has not yet reached the bottom. IDC expects growth to stay constrained through 2027, with any recovery pushed to 2028 at the least. The Kobeissi Letter added that vendors are raising prices and cutting budget models and that consumers are keeping phones longer.
Counterpoint Research put the decline at about 20%, and Omdia also estimated 20%. IDC's Francisco Jeronimo said many buyers are keeping their current devices longer as higher prices reach the shelf. Samsung and Apple together took about 45% of the market, as larger vendors held up better than Chinese brands focused on cheaper phones.
What to expect next
Watch fourth quarter shipments and holiday pricing, since IDC says the market has not hit bottom, and whether memory prices keep rising as AI data centers absorb supply.
Also watch whether Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo cut more budget models, and how Samsung and Apple use their scale to protect share. Memory makers' earnings will show how much AI demand is driving the price increases.