Elon Musk says Optimus robots and the Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla's value, while defending the new Roadster
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space. And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.
Context
Musk is telling investors to value Tesla mainly on robots and robotaxis that are not yet sold at scale, rather than on its car business.
This is an opinion from Tesla's CEO, posted as a reply to an investor account. Optimus is Tesla's humanoid robot and the Cybercab is its planned robotaxi, and the post gives no figures or timelines.
Deep dive
Early on October 18, Elon Musk wrote that Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla's value.
He added that the only things that will scale to incredible size economically, which he described as K2 and beyond, are superintelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space. He wrote that if you have the first two, the rest will follow, and ended by saying the Roadster is super cool, so Tesla is doing it anyway. The post does not define K2.
Musk was replying to Teslaconomics, who had written that people focused on the new Roadster's sales and margins were missing the point. That account, describing itself as a long term Tesla investor, wrote that it was looking at what Tesla and SpaceX can build together, and asked readers to imagine what could happen if the two companies merged.
Musk did not respond to the merger idea in his reply. A day earlier, he claimed the new Roadster will be sentient and able to perform its stunts autonomously on request, as covered in the Oct 17 deck.
The reply had drawn more than 20,000 likes. It includes no new production, pricing or delivery information for either product.
What to expect next
Watch Tesla's next earnings report and any updates on Optimus production and Cybercab deployment, which would show how close those products are to the scale Musk describes.
Also watch whether Musk or Tesla comment further on closer ties with SpaceX, which Teslaconomics raised, and how investors weigh the Roadster against the company's robotics pitch. Analysts' valuation models may shift if Tesla gives targets for robot or robotaxi revenue.